This paper presents a general framework based on copulas for modeling dependent multivariate uncertainties through the use of a decision tree. The proposed dependent decision tree model allows multiple dependent uncertainties with arbitrary marginal distributions to be represented in a decision...

Managers frequently rely on the judgment of an expert to estimate a probability distribution for a continuous random variable. Two elicitation methods are commonly used to gather this information: (i) quantile judgments for a set of fixed probability values, or (ii) cumulative probability...

We develop direct and indirect analytical approaches to determine the parameters of a distribution using elicited fractile values in the presence of elicitation errors. Both approaches seek to minimize the variance on the errors in the estimation of the parameters of the distribution. In the...