We propose a new procedure for estimating a dynamic joint distribution of a group of assets in a sequential manner starting from univariate marginals, continuing with pairwise bivariate distributions, then with triplewise trivariate distributions, etc., until the joint distribution for the whole...

Estimation of GARCH models can be simplified by augmenting quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimation with variance targeting, which reduces the degree of parameterization and facilitates estimation. We compare the two approaches and investigate, via simulations, how non-normality features of the...

We present a simple approach to forecasting conditional probability distributions of asset returns. We work with a parsimonious specification of ordered binary choice regression that imposes a connection on sign predictability across different quantiles. The model forecasts the future...

There coexist two popular autoregressive conditional density model classes for series of positive financial variables such as realized volatility. One is a class of multiplicative error models (MEM), where the conditional mean is modelled autoregressively, while the specified shape of...