Many financial decisions, such as portfolio allocation, risk management, option pricing and hedge strategies, are based on forecasts of the conditional variances, covariances and correlations of financial returns. The paper shows an empirical comparison of several methods to predict...

A longstanding finding in the forecasting literature is that averaging forecasts from different models often improves upon forecasts based on a single model, with equal weight averaging working particularly well. This paper analyzes the effects of trimming the set of models prior to averaging....

This chapter discusses the formal and informal techniques that are commonly used to give quantitative answers in the field of distributional analysis. To this end, it covers subjects including inequality, poverty, and the modeling of income distributions. It also deals with parametric and...

In the microsimulation literature, it is still uncommon to test the statistical significance of results. In this paper we argue that this situation is both undesirable and unnecessary. Provided the parameters used in the microsimulation are exogenous, as is often the case in static...

"Statistical adequacy" is an important prerequisite for securing reliable inference in empirical modelling. This paper argues for more emphasis on replication that specifically assesses whether the results reported in empirical studies are based on statistically adequate models, i.e., models...