Forecasting during the COVID-19 pandemic entails a great deal of uncertainty. The same way that we would like electoral forecasters to include their confidence intervals to account for such uncertainty, we assume that COVID-19-related forecasts should follow that norm. Based on literature on...

The authors model COVID infections and COVID deaths, both reported and implied, for the 50 U.S. states as well as the District of Columbia, and separately for a sample of 33 countries, as a function of pre-existing circumstances that citizens have no ability to control over the short term. These...

In 2015, an estimated 429,000 deaths and 212 million cases of malaria occurred worldwide, while 70% of the deaths occurred in children under five years old. Changes in climatic exposure such as temperature and precipitation makes malaria one of the most climate sensitive outcomes. Using a global...

There are many alternative approaches to selecting mortality models and forecasting mortality. The standard practice is to produce forecasts using a single model such as the Lee-Carter, the Cairns-Blake-Dowd, or the Age- Period-Cohort model, with model selection based on in-sample goodness of...

In 2015, an estimated 429,000 deaths and 212 million cases of malaria occurred worldwide, while 70% of the deaths occurred in children under five years old. Changes in climatic exposure such as temperature and precipitation makes malaria one of the most climate sensitive outcomes. Using a global...

Since testing for COVID-19 infections is not at all randomized over the general population, most epidemiological model forecasts of deaths are subject to `selection bias.' This paper updates and supplements Vinod and Theiss (2020), where the bias correction using generalized linear models (GLM)...

We offer state-wise forecasts of COVID-19 pandemic deaths for the week ending August 10, 2020 based on a sample selection model to correct for rationed and biased testing for the virus. We refer the reader to our earlier papers including Vinod and Theiss (2020b) and Vinod and Theiss (2020a),...

We analyze the impact of short-run economic fluctuations on age-specific mortality usingBayesian time series econometrics and contribute to the debate on the procyclicality ofmortality. For the first time, we examine the differing consequences of economic changesfor all individual age classes....

In this paper, we advance the network theory of aging and mortality by developing a causal mathematical model for the mortality rate. First, we show that in large networks, where health deficits accumulate at nodes representing health indicators, the modeling of network evolution with Poisson...

We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables with the example of age-specific mortality in the U.S., building on the Lee-Carter approach and extendingit in several dimensions. We incorporate covariates and model their dynamics jointly with the latent variables underlying...