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The main idea of this paper is to embed a classical actuarial regression model into a neural network architecture. This nesting allows us to learn model structure beyond the classical actuarial regression model if we use as starting point of the neural network calibration exactly the classical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012907645
This paper considers a restriction to non-negative matrix factorization in which at least one matrix factor is stochastic. That is, the elements of the matrix factors are non-negative and the columns of one matrix factor sum to 1. This restriction includes topic models, a popular method for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014125281
We propose an analytically tractable class of models for the dynamics of a limit order book, described as the solution of a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) with multiplicative noise. We provide conditions under which the model admits a finite dimensional realization driven by a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889239
Modeling counterparty risk is computationally challenging because it requires the simultaneous evaluation of all the trades with each counterparty under both market and credit risk. We present a multi-Gaussian process regression approach, which is well suited for OTC derivative portfolio...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012893780
Despite growing interest in the use of complex models, such as machine learning (ML) models, for credit underwriting, ML models are difficult to interpret, and it is possible for them to learn relationships that yield de facto discrimination. How can we understand the behavior and potential...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014353867
We develop a new method that detects jumps nonparametrically in financial time series and significantly outperforms the current benchmark on simulated data. We use a long short- term memory (LSTM) neural network that is trained on labelled data generated by a process that experiences both jumps...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181300
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014471471
Time series of financial asset values exhibit well known statistical features such as heavy tails and volatility clustering. Strongly present in some series, nonstationarity is a feature that has been somewhat overlooked. This may however be a highly relevant feature when estimating extreme...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009273102
We present an actuarial loss reserving technique that takes into account both claim counts and claim amounts. Separate (over-dispersed) Poisson models for the claim counts and the claim amounts are combined by a joint embedding into a neural network architecture. As starting point of the neural...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889273
This study presents an extension of the Gaussian process regression model for multiple-input multiple-output forecasting. This approach allows modelling the cross-dependencies between a given set of input variables and generating a vectorial prediction. Making use of the existing correlations in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011537542