We document five novel empirical findings on the well-known potential ordering drawback associated with the time-varying parameter vector autoregression with stochastic volatility developed by Cogley and Sargent (2005) and Primiceri (2005), CSP-SV. First, the ordering does not affect point...

Recent empirical findings suggest that macroeconomic variables are seldom normally dis- tributed. For example, the distributions of aggregate output growth-rate time series of many OECD countries are well approximated by symmetric exponential-power (EP) den- sities, with Laplace fat tails. In...

The paper examines the properties of standard data transformations - such as growth rates and moving averages-used by applied economists. Because many resources are devoted to understanding the economic significance of incoming data by government and financial-market economists, for example,...

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the asymptotic null distribution of stationarity and nonstationarity tests when the distribution of the error term belongs to the normal domain of attraction of a stable law in any finite sample but the error term is an i.i.d. process with finite...

Contemporaneous inference from economic data releases for policy and business decisions has become increasingly relevant in the high pace of the information age. The released data are typically filtered to eliminate seasonal patterns to reveal underlying trends and cycles. The nature of economic...

Volatility has been one of the most active and successful areas of research in time series econometrics and economic forecasting in recent decades. This chapter provides a selective survey of the most important theoretical developments and empirical insights to emerge from this burgeoning...

Strategies for constructing a Markov decision chain approximating a continuous-time finite-horizon optimal control problem are investigated. Some simple, analytically soluble, examples are treated and low computational complexity is reported. Extensions to the method and implementation are...

This study was carried out to estimate underlying inflation in Nigeria using Unobserved Component (UC) model. Also, different channels were used to identify the source of inflation persistence and volatility. This was estimated using Bayesian analysis in order to examine the role of priors in...

We develop a discrete-time affine stochastic volatility model with time-varying conditional skewness (SVS). Importantly, we disentangle the dynamics of conditional volatility and conditional skewness in a coherent way. Our approach allows current asset returns to be asymmetric conditional on...

Distribution-free bootstrapping of the replicated responses of a given discreteevent simulation model gives bootstrapped Kriging (Gaussian process) metamodels; we require these metamodels to be either convex or monotonic. To illustrate monotonic Kriging, we use an M/M/1 queueing simulation with...