We propose a model of correlated multi-firm default with incomplete information. While public bond investors observe issuers' assets and defaults, we suppose that they are not informed about the threshold asset level at which a firm is liquidated. Bond investors form instead a prior on these...

We develop a general filtering framework for the problem of estimating the state of a system whose dynamics is governed by a discrete-time Markov process. We describe applications to inventory control systems with partial observations. We introduce conditional distributions and unnormalized...

Emerging markets are more volatile and face different types of shocks, in size and nature, compared to their developed counterparts. Accurate identification of the stochastic properties of shocks is difficult. We show evidence suggesting that uncertainty about the underlying stochastic process...