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In this paper, we study jumps in commodity prices. Unlike assumed in existing models of commodity price dynamics, a simple analysis of the data reveals that the probability of tail events is not constant but depends on the time of the year, i.e. exhibits seasonality. We propose a stochastic...
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We propose a statistical procedure to determine the dimension of the nonstationary subspace of cointegrated functional time series taking values in the Hilbert space of square-integrable functions defined on a compact interval. The procedure is based on sequential application of a proposed test...
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Cointegration imposes restrictions on the frequency domain behavior of a time series at the zero-frequency. We derive … integrated of order d with r cointegrating relations, given by the rows of [I_{r};B1], where the cointegration errors are … the gain is the matrix of cointegrating coefficients. Extensions to noncontemporaneous cointegration, seasonal …
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Fractional cointegration imposes restrictions on the zero-frequency behavior of a time series. In a multivariate time …
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