This paper analyzes the impact of model complexity on the valuation of a project financed power plant along two dimensions: The NPV distribution and the expected cumulative default probability of the project. Model complexity is separated into forecast and simulation complexity. Thereby, we aim...

Starting with the liberalization of electricity trading, this market grew rapidly over the last decade. However, while spot and future markets are rather liquid nowadays, option trading is still limited. One of the potential reasons for this is that the spot price process of electricity is still...

This paper analyzes the impact of model complexity on the net present value distribution and the expected default probability of equity investments in project finance. Model complexity is analyzed along two dimensions: simulation complexity and forecast complexity. We aim to identify model...