This paper proposes a parsimoniously time varying parameter vector autoregressive model (with exogenous variables, VARX) and studies the properties of the Lasso and adaptive Lasso as estimators of this model. The parameters of the model are assumed to follow parsimonious random walks, where...

We consider a new method to estimate causal effects when a treated unit suffers a shock or an intervention, such as a policy change, but there is not a readily available control group or counterfactual. We propose a two-step approach where in the first stage an artificial counterfactual is...

This paper shows that the parsimoniously time-varying methodology of Callot and Kristensen (2015) can be applied to factor models. We apply this method to study macroeconomic instability in the US from 1959:1 to 2006:4 with a particular focus on the Great Moderation. Models with parsimoniously...

This paper reviews the recent trends in agricultural investments (both public and private) and tries to find structural breaks in the trends over the period of 1960-2017. Comparing the growth performance of investments and farm output (GDPAg and production) in various sub-periods based on...

This study analyzes the relationship between savings, investment, and economic growth in Nepal over 1975-2016. The structural breaks in the variables have been accounted for using the (Zivot and Andrews’s, J Bus Econ Stat 10: 251-270 1992) unit root test along with (Gregory and Hansen’s, Oxf...

Motivated by the need to avoid possible parameter bias associated with previous works, we examined the impacts of private sector credit on economic growth in Nigeria using the Gregory and Hansen (1996) cointegration test that accounted for structural breaks and endogeneity problems. The method...

This paper assesses the economic value of modeling conditional correlations for mean–variance portfolio optimization. Using sector returns in three major markets we show that the predictability of models describing empirical regularities in correlations such as time-variation, asymmetry and...