Using Bayesian tests for a structural break at an unknown break date, we search for a volatility reduction within the post-war sample for the growth rates of U.S. aggregate and disaggregate real GDP. We find that the growth rate of aggregate real GDP has been less volatile since the early...

A number of studies have documented a reduction in aggregate macroeconomic volatility beginning in the early 1980s, i.e., the quot;Great Moderation.quot; This paper documents the Great Moderation at the state level, finding significant heterogeneity in the timing and magnitude of states'...

We apply both classical and Bayesian econometric methods to characterize the dynamic behavior of inflation for twelve industrial countries over the period 1984-2003, using four different price indices for each country. In particular, we estimate a univariate autoregressive (AR) model for each...