Success in accurately forecasting breaks requires that they are predictable from relevant information available at the forecast origin using an appropriate model form, which can be selected and estimated before the break.  To clarify the roles of these six necessary conditions, we distinguish...

The new-Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) includes expected future inflation to explain current inflation. Such models are estimated by replacing the expected value by the future outcome, using Instrumental Variables or Generalized Method of Momentsmethods. However, the underlying theory does not...

Many economic models (such as the new-Keynesian Phillips curve, NKPC) include expected future values, often estimated after replacing the expected value by the actual future outcome, using Instrumental Variables or Generalized Method of Moments. Although crises, breaks and regime shifts are...