The present paper develops Adaptive Trees, a new machine learning approach specifically designed for economic forecasting. Economic forecasting is made difficult by economic complexity, which implies non-linearities (multiple interactions and discontinuities) and unknown structural changes (the...

We propose a novel approach to modelling structural changes in asset returns correlations. Our framework allows for breaks of different type in the conditional and unconditional correlation components by capturing abrupt regime switches in the short-run correlations and smooth transitions...

This paper provides evidence suggesting that currency returns are not predictable. We find that the Bilson-Fama regression is not only unstable, but the instability is triggered by novel historical events. The novelty of the events implies that the structural change underpinning returns cannot...

By its emissions of greenhouse gases, economic activity is the source of climate change which affects pandemics that in turn can impact badly on economies. Across the three highly interacting disciplines in our title, time-series observations are measured at vastly different data frequencies:...