We analyze a petroleum refinery's procurement strategy, explaining how risk management affects optimal sourcing from long-term, spot, and swap contracts. We use time series analysis to model the interaction between petroleum prices, transportation costs, and gross product worth. These models are...

We study the inclusion of loops in automated theory development based on causal logic. As an area of application, we formalize a model of learning, adaptation, and selection in supply chain management. Our methodological contribution is to analyze a causal network with propositional logic,...