This paper provides a new perspective on the exchange rate disconnect puzzle by referring to the expectations building mechanism in foreign exchange markets. We analyze the role of expectations regarding macroeconomic fundamentals for expected exchange rate changes. In doing so, we assess...

This paper introduces a new measure of fiscal policy uncertainty based on the disagreement among professional forecasters. We analyze different patterns of this measure for the German economy for a sample period from November 1995 to April 2018 and also use Italian data for comparison....

This paper provides a new perspective on the exchange rate disconnect puzzle by referring to the expectations building mechanism in foreign exchange markets. Therefore, we analyze the role of expectations regarding macroeconomic fundamentals for expected exchange rate changes. In doing so, we...

This study analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on exchange rates based on a comprehensive set of survey forecasts for more than 50 currency pairs. At the first stage, we assess whether the policy to manage the COVID-19 pandemic affects the expected path of exchange rates over the medium...

This paper focuses on dimensions and drivers of survey-based measures of inflation anchoring based on a panel of 82 economies over a period from 1995 to 2022. We show that different dimensions of inflation anchoring exhibit a strong co-movement but that standard deviation of inflation forecasts...

This paper assesses information contained in the micro dataset of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters regarding quarterly Brent crude oil price forecasts. We examine the expectations building mechanism by referring to the processing of information and confirm the presence of information...

This paper examines the effectiveness of the negative interest rate policy conducted by several central banks to stabilize economic growth and in ation expectations through the signaling channel. In doing so, we assess survey-based expectations data for up to 44 economies from 2002 to 2017 and...