Volatility increases the risk of exchange rate, and the risk of exchange rate refers to losing money due to fluctuations in the exchange rate. Thus, it significantly impacts the country's economic development stability or sustainability, as making investment and trade decisions under volatile...

Employing propensity score reweighting and event-based strategies, we provide evidence that sustained real exchange rate (RER) misalignments have significant effects on economic development: positive on GDP per capita and capital stock in the case of undervaluation, and negative on the capital...

This paper analyses Belgian fiscal sustainability using both a retrospective and a prospective view. In the retrospective part, empirical tests on Belgian government solvency during the period 1980-2010 are carried out. In the prospective part a scenario analysis of budgetary adjustment in the...

This paper presents evidence strongly suggesting that the current strength of the dollar reflects myopic behavior by international investors; that is, that part of the dollar's strength can be viewed as a speculative bubble. At some point this bubble will burst, leading to a sharp fall in the...

This paper presents evidence strongly suggesting that the current strength of the dollar reflects myopic behavior by international investors; that is, that part of the dollar's strength can be viewed as a speculative bubble. At some point this bubble will burst, leading to a sharp fall in the...

The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and...

Central banks' frameworks for managing foreign reserves have traditionally balanced a triad of objectives: liquidity, safety and return. Pursuing these objectives involves explicit trade-offs. More of an emphasis on returns, for instance, may require central banks to sacrifice some of the safety...

This study analyses and decomposes hedge fund returns in order to determine a systematic hedge fund selection criterion that enables investors to consistently and significantly outperform equity and bond indices over a full market cycle and over bull and bear market conditions. The methodology...