We propose a Markov Switching Graphical Seemingly Unrelated Regression (MS-GSUR) model to investigate time-varying systemic risk based on a range of multi-factor asset pricing models. Methodologically, we develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme in which latent states are identified on...

The purpose of this paper is the construction of an early warning indicator for systemic risk using entropy measures. The analysis is based on the cross-sectional distribution of marginal systemic risk measures such as Marginal Expected Shortfall, Delta CoVaR and network connectedness. These...

The paper analyses the contagion channels of the European financial system through the stochastic block model (SBM). The model groups homogeneous connectivity patterns among the financial institutions and describes the shock transmission mechanisms of the financial networks in a compact way. We...

We analyze the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis showing that the European network exhibits a strong community structure with two main blocks acting as shock spreader and receiver, respectively. We provide evidence of the prominent role played by insurances in the...

In this paper, we analyze the dynamic relationships between ten stock exchanges of the euro zone using Granger causal networks. Using returns for which we allow the variance to follow a Markov-Switching GARCH or a Changing-Point GARCH, we first show that over different periods, the topology of...

We propose several econometric measures of systemic risk to capture the interconnectedness among the monthly returns of hedge funds, banks, brokers, and insurance companies based on principal components analysis and Granger-causality tests. We find that all four sectors have become highly...