The paper uses monthly data on tourism related factors from April 2005 - June 2016 for Taiwan that applies factor analysis and Chang’s (2015) novel approach for constructing a tourism financial indicator, namely the Tourism Financial Conditions Index (TFCI). The TFCI is an adaptation and...

Since 2008, when Taiwan's President Ma Ying-Jeou relaxed the Cross-Strait policy, China has become Taiwan's largest source of international tourism. In order to understand the risk persistence of Chinese tourists, the paper investigates the short-run and long-run persistence of shocks to the...

Macro-economic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates an expert's touch,...