I study the effects of uncertainty on technology adoption and thereby on volatility and growth. I present an analytically-tractable model in which: (i) uncertainty about the returns to adoption delays technology diffusion; and (ii) the mean and volatility of output growth are jointly determined...

This paper studies the effect of innovation uncertainty on the concomitant time path of firm valuations, technology adoption and growth in a setting which incorporates positive network externalities. The resulting stock market bubble, induced by uncertainty and accelerated by the externality...

Can stock market bubbles accelerate long term growth? Do such bubbles indicate irrational behavior? This paper studies the effect of innovation uncertainty on the concomitant time path of firm valuations, technology adoption and growth in a setting that incorporates positive network...

This paper studies how the interplay between technological shocks and financial variables shapes the properties of macroeconomic dynamics. Most of the existing literature has based the analysis of aggregate macroeconomic regularities on the representative agent hypothesis (RAH). However, recent...

We study an equilibrium model with disagreement about the likelihood of successful innovations. We show that disagreement stimulates aggregate economic growth and overcomes market failures that would otherwise occur in an equilibrium without disagreement. The higher growth with disagreement...

In this paper, we introduce adoption costs in a canonical vintage capital model. Adoption costs take the form of a direct loss in production during a fixed period of time. We explicitly characterize the optimal machine replacement policy as a function of the adoption period. Using an explicit...

Since the advent of public and private initiatives in Colombia, there has been interest in exploring the possible future pathways of the Colombian business cycle. Based on a foresight analysis, it has been identified on the one hand that it is necessary to achieve greater productivity and...

I develop a general equilibrium model in which the accumulation of organizational capital is central for establishment dynamics. I compare its transition dynamics after a shock that introduces an incompatibility between new productive processes and accumulated organizational capital with those...

We construct a two-sector vintage capital model with neutral and investment-specific technical progress and variable utilization of each vintage. The lifetime of capital goods is endogenous and it relies on the associated maintenance costs. First, we show that the lifetime of capital is an...

Frequently, factors other than structural developments in technology and production efficiency drive changes in labor productivity in advanced and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). This paper uses a new method to extract technology shocks that excludes these influences, resulting...