An evolved version of the Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection (TIES) method is presented that provides techniques for quantifying technological uncertainty associated with immature technologies. Uncertainty in this context implies forecasting. Forecasting the impact of immature...

The design of complex systems, such as commercial aircraft, has drastically changed since the middle 1970's. Budgetary and airline requirements have forced many aerospace companies to reduce the amount of time and monetary investments in future revolutionary concepts and design methods. The...

The methodology presented in this paper is concerned with the ability to make informed decisions early in the design time line in order to provide a feasible, viable and robust system to the customer. Increasingly, the issues of affordability, uncertainty in design and technology impact...