This paper studies price stability and debt sustainability when the real rate exceeds trend growth (r g) in a New Keynesian model with endogenous technology growth through R&D. Under debt-stabilizing ("passive") fiscal policy the Taylor principle is not sufficient for determinacy. Instead,...

This paper studies fiscal policy in a New Keynesian DSGE model with endogenous technology growth in which scarring can occur endogenously through hysteresis effects in TFP. Both demand- and supply-driven recessions can weaken investment in R&D and technology adoption, thus depressing the...

Despite its stability over time, as for any statistical relationship, Okun's law is subject to deviations that can be large at times. In this paper, we provide a mapping between residuals in Okun's regressions and structural shocks identified using a SVAR model by inspecting how unemployment...

Population ageing constitutes a central challenge to Finland. Understanding the Finnish economy's likely future trajectory and the key sources of growth is important for the design of policies to counteract these adverse long-term trends. For this purpose, we develop a novel long-run forecast...

In this paper we analyze features of the recent business cycle with a New Keynesian small open economy DSGE model with labour market frictions and wage rigidity. The model complements the existing analytical tools of the Bank of Finland by enabling detailed analysis of labour markets in a DSGE...