In early 2020, the rapid spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) quickly developed into a pandemic. This was followed by a sharp global economic downturn that was extraordinary in its speed, reach and scale. Within days of the first reported COVID-19 cases, the ECB daily Composite Indicator of...

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is the worst global crisis since the Second World War, with developing countries suffering more devastating economic and social effects than developed countries. Governments’ increased pandemic-related expenditure combined with the drastic fall in...

We examine a propagation mechanism that arises from households' long-term borrowing and show empirically that it has sizable real effects. The mechanism recognises that when there is long-term debt, an impulse to new borrowing generates a predictable hump-shaped path of future debt service. We...