This paper develops the regime classification algorithm and applies it within a fully-edged pairs trading framework on minute-by-minute data of the S&P 500 constituents from 1998 to 2015. Specifically, the highly flexible algorithm automatically determines the number of regimes for any...

Macroeconomic news announcements are elaborate and multi-dimensional. We consider a framework in which jumps in asset prices around macroeconomic news and monetary policy announcements reflect both the response to observed surprises in headline numbers and latent factors, reflecting other...

In the prediction of quantiles of daily Standard&Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) returns we consider how to use high-frequency 5-minute data. We examine methods that incorporate the high frequency information either indirectly, through combining forecasts (using forecasts generated from returns sampled...