This paper shows that some key stylized facts of exchange-rate-based stabilization plans can be explained by the uncertain duration of the plans themselves. Uncertain duration is modeled to reflect evidence showing that devaluation probabilities are higher when the plans are introduced and...

The purchasing power parity (PPP) puzzle refers to the inability to reconcile the high short-run volatility of exchange rates with the glacial speed at which deviations from parity seem to damp out. Despite this, there is strong evidence of the long-run relationship between exchange rates and...

The Taylor rule has become the dominant model for academic evaluation of out-of-sample exchange rate predictability. Two versions of the Taylor rule model are the Taylor rule fundamentals model, where the variables that enter the Taylor rule are used to forecast exchange rate changes, and the...

This paper is concerned with international reserves. It makes two main points. Firstly, excess reserves cannot be regarded as a substitute for sound fundamentals because the former may destabilize the economic system in the longer term. Secondly, reserve accumulation financed by public debt can...

The UK has been a net debtor over the past two decades and the sterling exchange rates are sensitive to any chaos that might occur in the Financial market. This paper examines the importance of the inter-national financial imperfections in the sterling exchange rate dynamics. We build a small...

In this paper we evaluate the out of sample forecasting performance of a large number of models belonging to a popular class of exchange rate models. Forecasts of the Swedish nominal effective exchange rate for the period 1980-2000 are performed using both single equation estimation and VAR...

Starting with Friedman and Mundell the academic literature has conducted a high level debate concerning the design of cross-country monetary arrangements. That debate has become very complex and the data requirements necessary for appropriate application of the principles developed are far...

The impact of an unanticipated monetary shock in a small open economy with dollarization, factor price rigidities, and nontradeables is re-examined in an optimizing intertemporal general equilibrium model. The framework of an earlier study is extended to incorporate foreign real money balances...

This paper analyzes exchange rate behavior in a model where consumers trade goods to diversify shocks to their income. A model with traded and nontraded goods is simulated in a multilateral context based upon historical output correlations for the period 1970-92. Simulation results indicate that...

The paper presents a global model with systemic and country risks, as well as commodity prices. We show that systemic risk shocks have an important impact on world economic activity, with the busts in world output gap corresponding to unobserved systemic risk associated with major financial...