The paper extends the Shapiro-Stiglitz (1987) efficiency wage model by endogenising the probability of worker displacement as a function of the change in the firm's employment. This creates counter-cyclical variation in the wage mark-up and thereby generates real wage persistence. A New...

We propose a bivariate structural time series framework to decompose GDP and the unemployment rate into their trend, cyclical, and irregular components. We implement Okun's law by a generalised version of the common cycles restriction allowing for a phase shift between the two cycles and add a...

This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with models designed to exploit early releases of monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of...