"Bringing together the recent advances and innovative methods in macroeconomic forecasting, this erudite Handbook outlines how to forecast, including following world events such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis. With contributions from global experts, chapters explore the...

We show how to improve the accuracy of real-time forecasts from models that include autoregressive terms by estimating the models on "lightly-revised" data instead of using data from the latest-available vintage. Forecast accuracy is improved by reorganizing the data vintages employed in the...

We find that model estimates of the term structure of ex ante or perceived macro uncertainty are more in line with realized uncertainty than survey respondents perceptions for both in flation and output growth. Survey estimates contain short-term variation in short-horizon uncertainty which is...