This paper finds that fund managers do not expect mean reverting returns, as suggested by theory and empirical evidence, but mean averting returns. The degree of mean aversion is positively related to preferences for non-fundamental information and loss aversion.

This paper extends the real interest differential (RID) model of Frankel (1979) by introducing Markov regime switches for three exchange rates over the years 1973 - 2000. Evidence of a non-linear relationship between exchange rates and underlying fundamentals is provided. One of the regimes...