An explication of the key ideas behind the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression Approach. The CVAR approach is related to Haavelmo's famous quot;Probability Approach in Econometricsquot; (1944). It insists on careful stochastic specification as a necessary groundwork for econometric inference and...

Graph-theoretic methods of causal search based in the ideas of Pearl (2000), Spirtes, Glymour, and Scheines (2000), and others have been applied by a number of researchers to economic data, particularly by Swanson and Granger (1997) to the problem of finding a data-based contemporaneous causal...

Hedge Fund returns are often highly serially correlated mainly due to illiquidity exposures given that investments in such securities tend to be inactively traded and associated market prices are not always readily available. Following that, observed returns of such alternative investments tend...

This paper discusses the choice of an optimal external anchor for oil exporting economies, using optimum currency area criteria and simulations of a simple model of a small open economy pegging to a basket of two currencies. Oil exporting countries - in particular those of the Gulf Cooperation...

This paper develops a model for demand-system estimations, whose coefficients are own-price Marshallian elasticities and elasticities of substitution between goods. The model satisfies the homogeneity, symmetry and, eventually, adding-up restrictions implied by consumer theory, and is primarily...

Much of the trading activity in Equity markets is directed to brokerage houses. In exchange they provide so-called quot;soft dollarsquot; which basically are amounts spent in quot;researchquot; for identifying profitable trading opportunities. Soft dollars represent about USD 1 out of every USD...

Parameter shrinkage is known to reduce fitting and prediction errors in linear models. When the variables are dummies for age, period, etc. shrinkage is more commonly applied to differences between adjacent parameters, perhaps by fitting cubic splines or piecewise-linear curves (linear splines)...

Archimedean copulae build a large family of copulae exhibiting tail-dependency in many cases. We extend the classical homogeneous (exchangeable) Archimedean copula to the heterogeneous case. This will extend the use of this copula family to multivariate random variable with pairwise different...

This paper proposes a three-stage model of airline network competition, in which an airline's strategic decisions include its network structure (first stage), flight frequency (second stage), and pricing of all nonstop and one-stop services (third stage). The model links direct and indirect...