Many large organizations use a stage-gate process to manage new product development projects. In a typical stage-gate process project managers learn about potential ideas from research and exert effort in development while senior executives make intervening go/no-go decisions. This decentralized...

We explore some recent, and not so recent, developments concerning the use of probability forecasts and their combination in decision making. Despite these advances, challenges still exist. We expand on some important challenges influencing the “goodness” of combined probability forecasts...

We study the problem of forecasting a time series that evolves according to a dynamically changing, skewed life cycle. For instance, firms often need accurate distributional forecasts of product life cycles to make operational decisions about capacity and inventory management. These forecasts...

Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about the challenges associated...

Empirical evidence on the common ratio effect, a version of the Allais paradox, indicates that people are nonlinearly sensitive to probabilities. The leading explanation of this effect is prospect theory and its nonlinear weights applied to probabilities. We propose an alternative explanation:...