Investors have increasing interests in sophisticated yet transparent analytic tools to handle model uncertainty, tail risk and market dynamics. This paper demonstrates how macroeconomic factor models, based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA), can help address the challenges in some specific...

In this paper we study the impact of model uncertainty, which occurs when linking a stress scenario to default probabilities, on reduced-form credit risk stress testing. This type of uncertainty is omnipresent in most macroeconomic stress testing applications due to short time series for banks'...

During the recent European sovereign debt crisis, returns on EMU government bond portfoli-os experienced substantial volatility clustering, leptokurtosis and skewed returns as well as correlation spikes. Asset managers invested in European government bonds had to derive new hedging strategies to...