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The paper addresses the calculation of the value at risk (VaR) of the mathematical provision applied in a fair valuation context. Following a balance-sheet approach, the classical definition of VaR needs some clarifications. For identifying worst cases it is opportune to observe that an increase...

Future evolution of mortality poses important challenges for life insurance, pension funds, public policy and fiscal planning. Indeed, when fair values, premium rates and risk reserves are computed, sound and accurate models to forecast stochastic longevity are needed. In this paper, we propose...