Daily financial market returns (as log difference in closing prices) may be quite sensitive to operation with low trading volumes and big changes in prices frequently traded at market closing times. This paper proposes a more robust estimation of market returns by providing a new indicator that...

Over 85% of all foreign exchange (FX) transactions involve the US dollar. I show that the US dollar dominates FX trading volume because of strategic avoidance of price impact. To demonstrate this, I leverage the fact that non-dollar currency pairs can be traded indirectly by using the US dollar...

This paper examines the relationship between currency option's implied skewness and its future realized skewness, where the difference is known as the skewness risk premium (SRP). The SRP indicates whether investors pay a premium to be insured against future crash risk. Past investigations about...

This paper investigates the predictability of jumps in currency markets and shows the implications for carry trades. Formulating new currency jump analyses, we propose a general method to estimate the determinants of jump sizes and intensities. We employ a large panel of high-frequency data to...

Accurate volatility forecasting is a key determinant for portfolio management, risk management and economic policy. The paper provides evidence that the sum of squared standardized forecast errors is a reliable measure for model evaluation when the predicted variable is the intra-day realized...

It is well known that high-frequency asset returns are fat-tailed relative to the Gaussian distribution, and that the fat tails are typically reduced but not eliminated when returns are standardized by volatilities estimated from popular ARCH and stochastic volatility models. We consider two...

This article identifies the best models for forecasting the volatility of daily exchange returns of developing countries. An emerging consensus in the recent literature focusing on industrialized countries has noted the superior performance of the Fractionally Integrated Generalized...

In this paper, I have investigated the out of sample forecast performance for a case study on the determination of the nominal exchange rate for USD vis-à-vis IN¬R under VEC, VAR (in first difference) and Bayesian VAR specification with the help of set of economic theories. The forecast...

Currency carry trading presents a widespread trading strategy and refers to the forward premium puzzle. Investors borrow low-yielding currencies with the aim to invest in high-yielding ones in order to benefit from arbitrage opportunities. This implies that a one-to-one relationship does not...