We analyze the properties of multiperiod forecasts which are formulated by a number of companies for a fixed horizon ahead which moves each month one period closer and are collected and diffused each month by some polling agency. Some descriptive evidence and a formal model suggest that knowing...

The integration of fuzzy logic systems and neural networks in data driven nonlinear modeling applications has generally been limited to functions based upon the multiplicative fuzzy implication rule for theoretical and computational reasons. We derive a universal approximation result for the...

These notes review two simple heterogeneous agent models in economics and finance. The first is a cobweb model with rational versus naive agents introduced in Brock and Hommes (1997). The second is an asset pricing model with fundamentalists versus technical traders introduced in Brock and...

The aim of the paper is to obtain confidence intervals for the tail index and high quantiles taking into account the optimal rate of convergence of the estimator. The common approach to obtaining confidence intervals presented in the literature is to use the normal distribution approximation at...

This paper surveys work on dynamic heterogeneous agent models (HAMs) in economics and finance. Emphasis is given to simple models that, at least to some extent, are tractable by analytic methods in combination with computational tools. Most of these models are behavioral models with boundedly...

The primary objective of this paper is to compare a variety of joint models of the term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy. To this end, we consider six alternative approaches. Three of these models follow from the work of Diebold and Li (2003) with a generalization in Bolder...

We study consumption behaviour in systems with heterogeneous interacting agents. Two different models are introduced, respectively with long and short range interactions among agents. At any time step an agent decides whether or not to consume a good, doing so if this provides positive utility....

This article uses a sequentialized experimental design to select simulation input combinations for global optimization, based on Kriging (also called Gaussian process or spatial correlation modeling); this Kriging is used to analyze the input/output data of the simulation model (computer code)....