We examine the decision problem of a power producer contemplating an upgrade of its current generation capacity based on a fossil fuel technology (gas plant), when price processes have affine drift and differentiable volatility functions. The operator can choose the best of four mutually...

We construct a model of technology adoption with agents differing on two dimensions: their cognitive ability and their receptiveness to advice. While cognitive ability unambiguously speeds adoption, receptiveness to advice may speed adoption for individuals with low cognitive ability, but slow...

Bottom-up optimization models neglect the inclusion of investment behavior We introduce three investor types that differ in their investment cost specifications, financing costs, and discounting. This leads to a substantially different pace and rate of adoption for specific generation...

Using a novel data set that combines firms' qualitative survey-based sales forecasts with their quantitative balance-sheet data on realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors (those in the two tails of the distribution) are predictable and display auto-correlation. This result is...

Using a novel dataset that contains qualitative firm survey data on sales forecasts as well as balance-sheet data on realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a particular violation of the Full Information Rational...

Using a novel dataset that contains qualitative firm survey data on sales forecasts as well as balance-sheet data on realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a particular violation of the Full Information Rational...

This paper studies how managers plan under uncertainty. In a new survey panel on German manufacturing firms, we show that uncertainty reflects change: Planning incorporates higher subjective uncertainty about future sales growth when the firm has just experienced unusual growth, and more so if...

We develop a novel methodology to quantify forecasts based on qualitative survey data. The methodology is generally applicable when quantitative information is available on the realization of the forecasted variable, for example from firm balance sheets. The method can be applied to a wide range...

We use data from a large panel survey of UK firms to analyze the economic drivers of price setting since the start of the Covid pandemic. Inflation responded asymmetrically to movements in demand. This helps to explain why inflation did not fall much during the negative initial pandemic demand...

In modern organized wholesale electricity markets, power is sold competitively in a two-settlement auction comprised of a short-term forward (or "day-ahead") market with elastic demand, and a spot (or "real-time") imbalance market characterized by an inelastic residual demand curve - a construct...