This paper reports the results of an experiment in stock-price forecasting that investigated the effects of feedback on various dimensions of probability forecasting accuracy. Three types of feedback were used: (1) simple outcome feedback, (2) outcome feedback presented in the task format, and...

We investigate the link between momentum returns, credit ratings, and business cycles. Momentum returns are significant and large in speculative-grade stocks and more so during contraction periods in business cycles. Speculative-grade stocks, on average earn momentum returns of 1.71% per month...

This paper investigates the consequences of shutdowns during the Corona crisis on the risk of bankruptcy for firms in Germany and United Kingdom. We use financial statements from the period 2014 to 2018 to predict how pervasive risk of bankruptcy becomes for micro, small, medium, and large firms...

This study develops innovative measures of financial optimism by defining optimism as the overestimation of the favourable outcome in an individual's future financial situation. The paper finds that optimism has a positive influence on an individual's preference for risky portfolios and a...