This study investigates asymmetric mean reversion in the real returns of large- and small-cap US stocks for one- to ten-year periods. The return distributions are estimated with 1,000 random block bootstraps of 240-month returns from 1926-2017. Large-cap stock returns show significant asymmetric...

Market multiples of the largest firms are most likely to reflect efficient pricing of stocks. For such firms, variations in market multiples should be largely explained by fundamental variables, and expected returns should be positively related to beta but not significantly related to other...

This study assesses the usefulness of flexible optimal models of business cycle variables for predicting stock market returns. We find that variable estimation periods identify structural breaks in months with large absolute returns and the optimal models recognize regime switches. Flexible...

The risk-free rate is an important input in one of the most widely used finance models: the Capital Asset Pricing Model. Academics and practitioners tend to use either short-term Treasury bills or long-term Treasury bonds as the risk-free security without empirical justification. This study...