The interest in density forecasts (as opposed to solely modeling the conditional mean) arises from the possibility of dynamics in higher moments of a time series as well as, in some applications, the interest in forecasting the probability of future events. By combining the idea of Markov...

A rich data set of coffee prices and costs was used to determine to what extent changes in commodity costs affect manufacturer and retail prices. On average, a 10-cent increase in the cost of a pound of green coffee beans in a given quarter results in a 2-cent increase in manufacturer and retail...