This article develops a new approach to study the impact on beliefs and decisions of uncertain probability forecasts by advisors. The core concept of that approach, which builds on the revealed-preference approach favored by economists, is the one of revealed beliefs - the precise probability...

We propose simple behavioral definitions of comparative uncertainty aversion for a single agent towards different sources of uncertainty. Our definitions allow for the comparison of utility curvature towards different sources if the agent's choices satisfy subjective expected utility towards...

Internal capital models are increasingly used across the insurance business, including reinsurance optimization, risk appetite and business planning. While this expansion is well documented, less is known about what modelers do in practice, in order to embed capital models within their...

We address the question as to whether judgmental overconfidence, as assessed by probability miscalibration, is related to positive illusions about the self. We first demonstrate that judgmental overconfidence measured with interval production procedures can be considered a trait, due to...

This article presents the results of an experiment designed to test theoretical predictions about the impact of public compensation schemes and ambiguity on insurance and self-insurance decisions. Consistent with theory, we find that government assistance significantly reduces willingness to pay...