This paper presents unprecedented exchange rate forecasting results, based upon a new model that approximates the gap between the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate and the actual exchange rate with the long-maturity forward exchange rate. The theoretical derivation of our forecasting...

The level and composition of public expenditures and revenues both have implications for economic development, as shown by the 'fiscal multiplier' and the 'quality of public finance' literature. Public finance decisions also influence the distribution of income. Based on a review of the...

We demonstrate that short-run real exchange effective rate changes are dominated by nominal effective exchange rate changes, while inflation rates are sticky and contribute little to short-run real exchange rate changes. These observations allow a rather accurate real-time approximation of the...

This paper studies the implications for the European Central Bank (ECB) of the new EU fiscal framework, focusing on five aspects where monetary and fiscal policies intersect: (1) fiscal dominance over monetary policy; (2) fiscal drag created by the new framework; (3) moral hazard created by very...

This paper studies the implications for the European Central Bank (ECB) of the new EU fiscal framework, focusing on five aspects where monetary and fiscal policies intersect: (1) fiscal dominance over monetary policy; (2) fiscal drag created by the new framework; (3) moral hazard created by very...