This paper investigates the effect of inflation uncertainty innovations on inflation over time by considering the monthly United States data for the time period 1976-2006. In order to investigate the effect of inflation uncertainty innovation on inflation, a Stochastic Volatility in Mean model...

Empirical research of political business cycles (PBCs) may suffer from endogeneity bias when incumbent governments have discretion to call for an early election. Using an instrumental variable (IV) routine on data from Japan and the U. K., we find strong evidence to support the notion that...

The purpose of this paper is to assess the seasonal inflation uncertainties for a big open economy, the US, for the period from January 1947 to April 2008. The paper uses EGARCH model which includes volatility in the conditional mean equation capturing the short-term and long-term volatility...