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This paper develops a framework to study general equilibrium implications for an economy in which agents are allowed to have dynamically inconsistent time and risk preferences. This framework accommodates, but is not limited to, the following settings: (1) non-exponential discounting; (2)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012980965
We introduce a novel geometry-based method of modelling information that encompasses entropy-based approaches. A key contribution is that we explicitly construct the optimal path to acquire information. The economic driver of this geometry-based framework is knowledge state dependent marginal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012916734
-adjusted performance ranking of all US equity funds and highly correlated to CAPM alphas. After the change, the ranking was calculated …'s correlation to Fama-French (FF3) alphas. Flows strongly correlate with CAPM alphas before the change, but are strongly related to … strongly correlate with FF3 before and after the change, but are unrelated to CAPM. Over the broader time period, we find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012907676
This paper studies the implications of arbitrage in a large asset market under conditions of (Knightian) uncertainty.First, I adapt the notion of arbitrage to a market in which the assets' returns are affected by uncertainty across probability distributions. The setting delivers the analog of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013238089
I study the effects of risk and ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty) on optimal portfolios and equilibrium asset prices when investors receive information that is difficult to link to fundamentals. I show that the desire of investors to hedge ambiguity leads to portfolio inertia and excess...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013133587
We evaluate the Black-Litterman equilibrium model approach to portfolio choice. We quantify the improvement in portfolio performance of a privately informed investor who learns from market prices over an equally informed, but dogmatic investor who only uses private information. We extend the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013115124
Assuming that probabilities (capacities) of events are random, this paper introduces a novel model of decision making under ambiguity, called Shadow probability theory, a generalization of the Choquet expected utility. In this model, probabilities of observable events in a subordinated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013119880
This paper analyzes the link between herd behavior and asset prices in a multi-good pure-exchange economy where investors' preferences evolve over time in response to the consumption decisions of other investors. More precisely, the rule of updating preferences incorporates a bandwagon effect,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013105266
This paper proposes a new approach for modeling investor fear after rare disasters. The key element is to take into account that investors' information about fundamentals driving rare downward jumps in the dividend process is not perfect. Bayesian learning implies that beliefs about the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010387528
I investigate whether two mechanisms leading to biased beliefs about success, overconfidence and competition neglect, influence decisions to enter competitive environments. I use a controlled laboratory setting that allows to elicit belief distributions related to absolute as well as relative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011900069