Does an observation constitute stronger evidence for a theory if it was made after rather than before the theory was formulated, when it may have influenced the theory's construction? Philosophers have discussed this question (of quot;novel confirmationquot;) but have lacked a formal model of...

Not in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy, once we account for the fact that most of the high-frequency volatility in wages appears to be due to noise, rather than to variation in workers' preferences or market power

This study analyzes the extent to which an individual's survival expectations influence his or her decision to claim social security benefits at an early age. We find that subjective survival probabilities capture meaningful behavioral responses to incentives for early Social Security claiming...

Using generalized method of moments on the covariance matrix, I test three models of consumption change on constructed consumption data from the Health and Retirement Study. Meant as a first step towards estimating life-cycle effects of subjective survival probabilities on consumption profiles,...