We provide a methodology to disentangle the long-run relation between variables from their own dynamics. Macroeconomic and aggregate financial series have a high degree of inertia. If this persistence is not properly accounted for, spurious correlations will give rise to paradoxes. Our procedure...

Macroeconomic and aggregate financial series share an unconventional type of nonlinear dynamics. Existing techniques (like co-integration) model these dynamics incompletely, hence generating seemingly paradoxical results. To avoid this, we provide a methodology to disentangle the long-run...

Suppose we have observations ranging over t=0,1,…T on real net investment, {I_{n,t}}₀^{T}, and on real gross investment, {I_{g,t}}₀^{T}. We derive a method of calculating the depreciation rate for each of the periods {δ_{t}}₁^{T}, and estimating `the' implied net capital stock...