This paper proposes a dynamic model of sovereign debt that combines default, settlement, and repayment history. The model addresses two questions: 1) how level of debt and income profile effect the length of time a country in default is excluded from the international credit market, and 2) how...

In this paper we specify a linear Cliff and Ord-type spatial model. The model allows for spatial lags in the dependent variable, the exogenous variables, and disturbances. The innovations in the disturbance process are assumed to be heteroskedastic with an unknown form. We formulate a multi-step...