We re-examine the evidence on the new Phillips curve model of Gali and Gertler (Journal of Monetary Economics 1999) using the conditional score test of Kleibergen (Econometrica 2005),which is robust to weak identification. In contrast to earlier studies, we find that US postwar data are...

Long-run restrictions are a very popular method for identifying structural vector autoregressions, but they suffer from weak identification when the data is very persistent, i.e., when the highest autoregressive roots are near unity. Near unit roots introduce additional nuisance parameters and...

We consider a prototypical representative-agent forward-looking model, and study the low frequency variability of the data when the agent's beliefs about the model are updated through linear learning algorithms. We find that learning in this context can generate strong persistence. The degree of...

The Mortensen and Pissarides (1994) matching model with all wages negotiated each period is shown inconsistent with macroeconomic wage dynamics in the US. This applies even when heterogeneous match productivities, time to build vacancies and credible bargaining are incorporated. Wage rigidity...