The use of log-transformed data has become standard in macroeconomic forecasting with VAR models. However, its appropriateness in the context of out-of-sample forecasts has not yet been exposed to a thorough empirical investigation. With the aim of filling this void, a broad sample of VAR models...

Given the relatively low computational effort involved, vector autoregressive (VAR) models are frequently used for macroeconomic forecasting purposes. However, the usually limited number of observations obliges the researcher to focus on a relatively small set of key variables, possibly...

Since the seminal article of Bates and Granger (1969), a large number of theoretical and empirical studies have shown that pooling different forecasts of the same event tends to outperform individual forecasts in terms of forecast accuracy. However, the results remain heterogenous regarding the...

This paper proposes a new measure for the evaluation of financial market efficiency, the so-called intermittency coefficient. This is a multifractality measure that can quantify the deviation from a random walk within the framework of the multifractal random walk model by Bacry et al. (2001b)....

This paper introduces two co-movement measures based on the Thick Pen Transform into the macroeconomic literature: the Thick Pen Measure of Association (TPMA) as well as Multi-Thickness Thick Pen Measure of Association (MTTPMA). Both measures are non-parametric, time-varying, and flexible....

This paper measures integration of the world crude oil market using two so-called Thick Pen methods: the Thick Pen Measure of Association (TPMA) as well as Multi-Thickness Thick Pen Measure of Association (MTTPMA). They allow one to capture time-varying co-movement of different regional crude...

In this paper, we apply a convex hull approach to counterfactual analysis of trade openness and growth. The experiments we choose evaluate the importance of trade openness for growth across African countries. Specifically, we ask the question “what would happen if African countries were more...

This paper contributes to the green paradox literature by using a resource extraction framework with heterogeneous energy sources. A key feature of the model is a capacity constrained green backstop resource, which implies the simultaneous use of the expensive backstop resource and the cheaper...