This paper finds positive evidence of return predictability and investment gains for individual corporate bonds for an extended period from 1973 to 2017. Our sample consists of both public and private company bond observations. We have implemented multiple machine learning methods and designed a...

Using implied-CDS risk premium measures, we find that these variables have higher explanatory power for cross-sectional bond returns than the traditional default spread and ratings. The positive effect of the credit risk premium (CRP) factor on expected returns is pervasive, stronger for...

This paper documents substantial evidence of return predictability and investment gains for individual corporate bonds via machine learning. The forecast-implied long-short and market-timing strategies deliver significant risk-adjusted returns over transaction costs. Random Forest has the best...

Using a robust textual analytic method, we decompose the P2P loan description into common and distinctive contents, which contain general and unique information provided by borrowers. We then investigate the role of the distinctive content in affecting P2P lending decisions and outcomes....