This paper proposes a robust forecasting method for non-stationary time series. The time series is modelled using non-parametric heteroscedastic regression, and fitted by a localized MM-estimator, combining high robustness and large efficiency. The proposed method is shown to produce reliable...

This paper proposes a robust forecasting method for non-stationary time series. The time series is modelled using non-parametric heteroscedastic regression, and fitted by a localized MM-estimator, combining high robustness and large efficiency. The proposed method is shown to produce reliable...

We develop and test a robust procedure for extracting an underlying signal in form of a time-varying trend from very noisy time series. The application we have in mind is online monitoring data measured in intensive care, where we find periods of relative constancy, slow monotonic trends, level...

Abrupt shifts in the level of a time series represent important information and should be preserved in statistical signal extraction. We investigate rules for detecting level shifts that are resistant to outliers and which work with only a short time delay. The properties of robustified versions...