We use a very general bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-in-mean model and G7 monthly data covering the 1957-2003 period to test for the impact of real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Our evidence supports a number of...

Financial bubble theories emphasize the importance of behavioral mechanisms cen- tered around investor beliefs, which can be potentially gleaned from prevailing nar- ratives, that reflect investors’ psychological states and link them to economic events. By summarizing market narratives into...

This paper examines the role of speculative motives in the determination of commodity prices and specifically food related commodity prices. The motivation for this study is the considerable flow of funds into commodities, the widespread view that the process of financialization has led to...