It is customary to assume that an indicator of a latent variable is driven by the latent variable and some random noise. In contrast, a background indicator is also systematically influenced by variables outside the structural model of interest. Background indicators deserve attention because in...

Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...

Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...